Because of the degree of difficulty, the author’s small Wisconsin buck on public land (right) was a greater accomplishment than his big South Dakota buck (left) on prime private land. Both hunts were DIY, no bait, and both animals were taken from natural ground blinds.
I’m writing this short article on Oct. 24, 2023, and the forecast for the upcoming weekend (October 28-29) here in the upper Midwest is for dramatically falling temperatures. It’s been a rather warm fall thus far here in Minnesota, so most deer hunters can hardly contain their enthusiasm to hit the woods in a few days. No doubt many of these hunters will take a couple of vacation days, too, likely October 30 and 31, to make for a 4-day weekend. Of course, Halloween is October 31, and for many diehard deer hunters, it marks the beginning of the best deer hunting of the season.
The purpose of this article isn’t to go into detail about the pre-rut, rut, etc., and why whitetail bucks are on their feet more this time of the year looking for a doe in heat. You likely know all about these topics, and if you don’t, there’s always Google, plus a zillion videos on YouTube.
Instead, I want to discuss your hunting expectations for the next 3-4 weeks. I thought about it this afternoon while taking a 20-minute hike along a wooded river-bottom behind my house. On paper (or on a hunting app), it looks like it should be a whitetail paradise — thick cover along the small river, nearby agriculture (corn, soybeans and alfalfa), and lots of acorn-producing oaks. In addition, the parcel I walked is adjacent to a mile-long stretch of woods that’s off limits to hunting due to the fact it’s within small town city limits. An outsider would assume that the off-limits zone would act as a bedding sanctuary, and whitetails would travel along the river and eventually onto nearby ag fields to feed. It has all the makings of a big-buck factory.
Except it’s not.
From my living room window I’ve looked over this river-bottom for nearly 20 years. Do I see deer? Sure, occasionally. Have I ever seen a big buck? No. I can remember seeing a couple of bucks that would score 115-120-ish, but the area simply isn’t home to mature bucks, or a high number of antlerless deer and small bucks for that matter.
Why?
I suspect it’s because the small river floods drastically about every other spring, and sometimes a few springs in a row. By “drastically” I mean the area where whitetails are bedding right now (the river is low currently) is under 3 to 6 feet of water during spring floods. Though far less common, the river can flood during summer and fall, too. During these spring floods, the entire forest is submerged, and all wildlife must leave to survive.
As I hiked along the river for a half mile, I wasn’t surprised by the lack of buck sign. And keep in mind that while the river flooded this spring, it’s been well inside its banks for 5 months. It looks like ideal whitetail cover. Overhanging branches that are the perfect height for a scrape have not been touched. In fact, I didn’t spot a single scrape — again, it’s October 24 as I write this; scraping should be at a season high right now. I saw one fresh rub. One. And it was on a 1-inch-diameter tree.
Could a Booner wander through this November? Sure, anything is possible. But if I were bowhunting this area (outside the no-hunting zone, of course), I’d be hoping to shoot any deer, doe or buck. And if I got a shot at a buck, the chance of it being a 1.5 year old would be 90 percent; I’d say you’d have a 9 percent chance of seeing a 2.5 year old buck. I’m leaving a 1 percent chance of seeing an older buck just because anything is possible. In my opinion, those would be realistic expectations for a bowhunter in this area.
My Whitetail Expectations for 2023
This upcoming weekend I’ll be in Wisconsin hunting with family and friends. (Click here for a short story where I detail the type of land I hunt, public vs. private, and why. I think it will surprise you.) Our family has a couple of big bucks on trail cams, but my chances of seeing one of them is very small. I’ll be quite happy to shoot a 2.5-year-old buck, and I won’t pass a close-range opportunity at a doe, either.
Why won’t I hold out for a 3.5 year old or older buck? Because I’ve been bowhunting this area of Wisconsin since 1978, and even though I put in dozens of days each season, specifically during Halloween and the few weeks afterward, I’ve killed two bucks that I think were 3.5. Yes, that’s two “big bucks” in 44 years of trying. I put “big bucks” in quotes because it’s all relative; neither one makes the Pope and Young minimum of 125 points. Have I seen a lot of other mature bucks during deer season, but just couldn’t close the deal? No. I’ve seen two or three others during deer season — in 44 years!
Depending on how my Wisconsin season goes, I might shoot a 1.5-year-old buck; I’ve done it before and am not embarrassed to do it again. This season I’ve already passed on a handful of them. But most years, I’ll try to shoot an adult doe before I take a yearling buck. It’d be great to have a chance at a 2.5 year old. Those are my realistic expectations.
In contrast, I also have the chance to hunt a river-bottom in South Dakota. Unlike Wisconsin, this land becomes home to numerous good-sized bucks from Halloween through December, especially when a bit of snow combined with cold temps and strong winds drives deer off the prairie and into the forested river-bottom. It’s not uncommon for me to see more mature bucks (3.5 and older) in a single weekend in South Dakota than I’ve seen during the last 44 years of bowhunting Wisconsin. Think about that!
Because my chances of getting a shot at a mature buck is so much higher in South Dakota, I’ll pass on younger whitetails until I find one that is in the top 5 or 10 percent of the available bucks.
Case in point: This past Sunday morning in South Dakota (October 22), I passed a broadside shot at a slowly walking tall-tined 6x5 at 9 yards. He was totally unaware of my presence 14 feet in a tree. I had perfect cover in which to draw my bow undetected. In fact, an hour after passing the buck, I arrowed a coyote in the same shooting lane.
I passed the tall-tined 6x5 because he was only a 2.5-year-old buck. Handsome? Sure! But I could tell by looking at his body, and his antlers (about 12-inch-wide inside spread) that this was his second rack. The bag limit is one buck (or doe) in South Dakota, and I didn’t want my season to end so soon. I know that in a couple of weeks the river-bottom will be cranking, and I want to see what shows up. Hopefully I’ll get a similar shot opportunity at an older buck, and if I don’t, then I’m okay with that. Or I’ll switch my focus to trying to kill a doe near the end of December. I’ve eaten SoDak tag soup before and if it happens again, then that’s okay. Again, these are realistic expectations for this property.
Final Thoughts
Don’t fall into the trap of forming your expectations based on what you see on social media or YouTube. Because of my job as editor of Bowhunting World, I’m friends with some of the most well-known deer hunters in America, and trust me when I tell you that the properties they hunt are nothing like 99.9 percent of the lands hunted by nearly everyone else.
These hunters are probably NOT more skilled than you. They shoot big bucks each year because the heavily managed private land they hunt is littered with mature bucks. I won’t mention his name, but one well-known Iowa bowhunter told me, “Dave, I’d have to be a complete idiot to not shoot a 150 each season on my ground. They’re everywhere, on their feet during daylight, from Halloween through mid November. It’s all about the absolute lack of hunting pressure and quality and size of my land, in that order. This is not an exaggeration: It’s a greater accomplishment for you to kill a 110-class, 2.5 year old on your Wisconsin land than it is for me to kill a 150-class, 3.5 year old or a 160-class or bigger, 4.5 year old on my land.”
This deer season, set realistic expectations. It’s okay to shoot whatever you want, provided it’s a legal animal. Don’t compare your results to those of others; bowhunting isn’t a competition. It should be fun, not stressful. Try to remember that this season while waiting on a whitetail.
